Modelling and analysis to prepare for renegotiation of Commonwealth funding

The Victorian Department of Human Services engaged Nous to assist it to prepare for the renegotiation of the joint Commonwealth-state funded $340m Home and Community Care (HACC) program. Some HACC clients also received support from the largely state-funded Disability Services program. For this reason, the department required additional understanding of the implications of demographic trends, demand patterns, service provision arrangements and funding structures on this client pool in order to prepare its positioning ahead of negotiations with the Commonwealth.

Nous analysed the data and reviewed literature on the HACC and Disability Services client groups, the service system, policy and funding arrangements and a range of other drivers of change in the sector. We conducted interviews and focus groups with managers and staff members from both programs.

Drawing upon this work we developed projections for future demand and a dynamic scenario analysis tool to assist decision makers in the department in their preparations for negotiations with the Commonwealth.