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Recent case studies

Strategy & public policy
Scenario planning

Client

Victoria’s independent planner for the electricity and gas transmission networks.

Challenge

The client was seeking to create a 25-year vision covering Victoria’s $11 billion electricity and gas transmission sectors, and associated market operations, to generate a shared understanding among all key stakeholders of the likely and desired longer-term developments of the industry.

The challenge in developing the vision document was to actively engage all 20 key industry stakeholders, and to promote a shared, coherent view of the long term future of the industry.

Solution

A scenario planning approach was used to accommodate the wide range of possible long‑term outcomes for the Victorian energy industry. Built upon an analysis of twenty-one factors that shape investment in new infrastructure, four industry scenarios were defined. These were then modelled to determine associated transmission capacity requirements, and the maximum capacity requirement across the range of scenarios was used to identify suitable transmission solutions for each corridor, area and region. Analysis of these transmission solutions identified a number of issues and challenges involved in addressing Victoria’s long‑term infrastructure needs. The twenty industry stakeholders were actively engaged at critical stages in this approach, including the industry scenario development.

Variable aspects of the selected four industry scenarios were chosen to maximise the demands on transmission infrastructure without going beyond the limits of what was reasonably possible in terms of 25‑year industry outcomes.

Outcome

The vision document is considered an exemplar of energy planning and foresight and will complement the other transmission planning processes in Victoria for years to come. It offered stakeholders in the Victorian energy industry a shared framework and language for planning activity. This assisted communication of the long‑term significance and value of particular projects, as well as their relationship to other development proposals under consideration. It also offered valuable context to preserve potentially valuable long‑term augmentation options when asset replacement plans are developed by infrastructure owners.

The exemplar nature of the vision document has been sighted at the Victorian Government’s ministerial level.

 

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